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Threat and Intimidation: The Iranian Regime's Approach to Evading Accountability!
Despite the Iranian regime's desperate attempts to showcase its strength and capability in the face of ongoing American pressure to accept U.S. demands regarding its nuclear program and other issues, this is neither sufficient nor convincing for the Iranian people, especially since the regime is currently in its worst conditions, with deteriorating circumstances heading toward a crisis that could place the regime on the edge of a precipice!
The international community, particularly the West and the United States, has not been convinced by what Khamenei has previously stated regarding the prohibition of producing an atomic bomb. International doubts remain, especially since this regime has a long history of lying and deceit. Thus, when Khamenei told a crowd of his followers on March 12, 2025, in response to Trump's statements, "Our lack of nuclear weapons and our not seeking them is not because America prevents us, but because we do not want it for certain reasons that we have discussed before. However, if we wanted to, they would not be able to stop us," his words bring nothing new; rather, they continue the practice of obfuscation and clouding the regime's true intentions.
Khamenei’s clear fear of potential military confrontation, emphasized by the American president in the event of a refusal to negotiate, has led him to suggest once again that his regime would ignite the region in the event of a military strike against it. Particularly, he added in his earlier speech, "If the Americans or their clients make any mistake, they will be the biggest losers.” As is well-known about the Iranian regime, when it fears a military confrontation and seeks to avoid it, it threatens to ignite the region and close the Strait of Hormuz. However, the notable point here is that this American threat is serious and very grave this time. Instead of threatening that "Iran is capable of delivering a reciprocal blow, and it certainly will," Khamenei should seek a realistic way out of his predicament, especially after suffering a series of significant defeats in the region, which has resulted in a substantial loss of his power.
While Khamenei spends his time issuing threats, he knows full well that his internal situation is on the verge of igniting due to the regime’s dubious policies and approach. If he aims to stir the emotions of the Iranian people who have suffered greatly due to him and his regime, he is mistaken and basing his expectations on weak foundations. The people, who witness daily protests against the dire conditions and his failed policies, want to end the policies based on manipulating the resources and finances of the Iranian people for the benefit of the regime. Thus, any confrontation that occurs will be a confrontation with the regime itself, and it will be he who will bear the cost and consequences!
Why are there many disagreements within the Iranian regime regarding negotiations with the U.S.?
The reality is that Khamenei faces a dead end in addressing the multiple internal issues and crises. If he accepts negotiations, it will trigger a series of repercussions against his rule. If he refuses and opts for confrontation with the United States and its allies while being obstinate, he will have to pay the price in another way, a price beyond the capacity of his weak regime, which Khamenei is more aware of than anyone else.
Regarding internal disagreements within the regime over various issues, the statements of Hassan Rouhani, the former president of the regime, on Friday, March 14, during a meeting with his ministers and deputies from his presidency, deserve attention. He said in part of his speech:
"The continued debate in our country over whether we should join the FATF or not reflects the level of our rationality! Anyone looking at Iran from the outside will fully understand what is happening in the country! … Amid all these crises, we are still arguing about some issues like whether we should negotiate or not! What kind of debate is this?! … Did we not negotiate with the United States regarding Afghanistan and Iraq? When I was Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Khamenei sent me a memorandum with instructions on the points that Iranian negotiators should raise during the talks!"
Hassan Rouhani's statements directly contradict Khamenei’s assertions, where he stated: "We will never negotiate with the United States because that is irrational and shameful." This contradiction clearly reveals the deadly deadlock facing the regime concerning its nuclear program and the negotiation file with the United States and its allies, painting a bleak picture for the future of the regime. A future that is heading towards a comprehensive uprising led by resistance units and well-organized opposition, which will ultimately lead to the downfall of the regime and the victory of the Iranian people.
Levant: Mir Mohammad
