Al-Golani Between Illusions of Eternity and the Inevitable Fall

From the moment he shook hands with Donald Trump, the countdown began for Al-Golani — Ahmed al-Shar’, and the leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, even his government. That handshake was not just a fleeting political protocol; it was a covert declaration that the man who crafted an image of the "Islamic Prince" had turned into a limited-term international project, used at times and burned when his time was up. From that moment, Al-Golani was no longer an absolute leader as he wished to appear, but a pawn within the equations of Washington, Tel Aviv, and Ankara — a pawn with no weight unless it served the interests of others.

However, his downfall, whether as a person, a political system, or an extremist ideological dominance, is not solely read through international politics but also from within his actions and his terrorist organization. The man who tried to wear the cloak of “moderate ruler” was quickly exposed through his rhetoric of hatred and the practices of his government. The crimes committed by his groups in the Syrian coastal area against Alawites were only the beginning; they were followed by even more heinous attacks against Christians, most notably the bombing of the Mar Elias Church in Damascus, then the atrocities in Jaramana, and finally the massacres against the Druze Monotheists, known for their patriotism and resilience. These acts not only tarnished his image in the eyes of the international community but also stripped him of any legitimacy he attempted to wear before the Syrians themselves.

Nevertheless, the catastrophe was not only domestic. The more dangerous path revealing the true nature of Al-Golani’s project is the normalization of relations with Israel—up to the level of exchanging ambassadors. This did not happen by chance; Israel did not just watch the scene but participated in shaping it, driven by the obsession to redraw maps, and in direct coordination with Turkey, which armed him, supplied him with weapons, and opened the doors of the regional scene for him. It appeared as if the man who presented himself as an enemy of the West has now become a pliable tool in the hands of the same forces he claimed to fight. The paradox here is evident: the Sunni extremism he advocates is no less dangerous to American and Israeli interests than Iranian Shiite extremism, making Al-Golani just a temporary card, ready to be discarded at any moment.

History repeats itself, and patterns resemble each other despite different names. The Taliban, who were said to have won the war, are now crumbling from within Afghanistan and facing an unavoidable decline. Wars feed extremism, while prolonged peace extinguishes and exposes it. An obvious example is Latin America, where Pablo Escobar, the Colombian mafia boss who tried to wear the suit of a politician and entered Parliament as a presidential candidate, was later revealed to be nothing but the head of the largest drug cartel in the world. At that time, Washington used a similar approach: it let him shine briefly, then internally pushed figures to expose his corruption, causing his aura to collapse before the eyes of the people. Neither violence nor money could save his image.

This is what awaits him. The more his media image expands, the more his crimes are exposed. The more he tries to present himself as a statesman, the more he appears intertwined with his bloody past — fighting alongside Zarkawi and Baghdadi, drowning in the blood of American, Iraqi, and Syrian soldiers all at once. Soon, the world may see clearly, even from the United Nations platform, what Golani attempted to hide behind his masks. Ultimately, he will not be regarded as a political leader or caliph, but as a bloody murderer with bloodstained hands. His crimes are no less heinous than those of Assad and Saddam.

For this reason, any direct confrontation against him by the United States or Israel would be a loss in the eyes of Sunni populations, even if governments achieve it. Today’s gamble is on his internal collapse, bleeding his legitimacy step by step until he falls alone — just like other terrorist leaders. Perhaps this is the policy that U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack bets on: gradually dismantling his aura and bringing him down by the hands of the Syrians themselves, so that it’s not said that outsiders are the ones to topple him.

The phase of Golani’s fall and his government’s collapse may not last more than a year, or slightly longer. Indicators are increasing: shrinking popularity, escalating hate speech, more crimes against other components of the Syrian people. As history teaches us, the true power does not resort to noise and catastrophic threats, but to patience and wisdom. The weak, however, resort to imaginary battles to cover their fear. Today, Golani strengthens himself with unrestrained militias that commit atrocities, then disavow them — a tragic scene reminiscent of the ends of tyrants who believed they were.

Mahmoud Abbas