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America and Iran Oppose Each Other in Light of Turkey's Geopolitical Interests
Henry Kissinger, the architect of current U.S. foreign policy, discussed a potential confrontation between Israel and Iran in his 2014 book *The Global Order*. According to him, the "Turkey-Iran-Israel" triangle forms the foundation of the global system in the Middle East, a system maintained through balancing the interests of these three components.
The Collapse of the Fragile Balance:
Recent events reveal that the delicate regional balance of power is on the verge of unraveling. Efforts to overthrow Khamenei and remove Iran from the nuclear race will lead to irreversible consequences, most notably the rise of extremism and terrorism in the region. Washington openly seeks to destroy and divide Iran by any means—targeting nuclear facilities, eliminating senior officials, and even dismantling the religious government from within by involving various factions.
Dividing Iran as a Main Tool Against Khamenei:
Undoubtedly, the United States, driven by its interests, will push factions within Iran towards greater independence and operational freedom against Tehran, leveraging their struggle and fighting spirit. We must not forget the bitter experience of Mahabad and the Algeria Agreement.
The "Jina Revolution"—a series of mass protests across Iran triggered by the death of the 22-year-old Kurdish woman murdered by the "Morality Police" for improper hijab—signifies the first signs of some form of Western and global solidarity with Iran’s diverse components.
What Threatens Turkey if Iran Collapses?
It is indisputable that Iran has historically been one of Turkey’s main rivals in the Middle East. However, current historical realities have shifted somewhat. A divided Iran poses a much greater threat to Turkey than a unified, strong Iran.
- Migration Crisis:
The primary threat lies in the massive influx of refugees—should there be a coup or upheaval in Iran. Over 46 years of isolation, Iranians have been cut off from the outside world, with travel abroad almost impossible. After Khamenei’s fall, millions of Iranians are expected to cross Turkey’s borders into Europe. We all recall how Europe "waited" for Syrian and Afghan refugees—most of whom settled in Turkey. The arrival of several million Iranian refugees would overwhelm the Turkish economy, forcing Ankara once again to pay the price for American ventures.
- Boosting Israel’s Power:
A strong Iran historically deterred Israel from overstepping in the region. Now, with the possibility of removing Iran as a key regional actor, Tel Aviv would receive full authorization to continue punitive campaigns not only in Palestine but also in Syria. This would pose a clear challenge to Turkey—certainly with U.S. backing—making conflict with Israel inevitable. While open military confrontation may not occur, Turkey would face a formidable challenge in competing with Netanyahu, a conflict that would involve the entire Turkish Republic.
- Rising Terrorism:
In a weakened Iran, various extremist national and religious armed groups are expected to strengthen their positions, likely igniting a new wave of violence that could develop into a full-scale civil war. We must not forget that millions of soldiers loyal to Khamenei are unlikely to lay down their weapons easily; many will join guerrilla groups to carry out terrorist attacks both outside Iran and within it, targeting civilians and military personnel. Special attention should be paid to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard units, which are unlikely to support Iran’s division or its loss of privileged status. They could become the main source of extremist Islamism in the region, pushing Turkey into another "ISIS 2.0" scenario.
- Disruption of Regional Trade and Economy:
Currently, Turkey’s economic and trade policies are aligned with the prevailing regional system. After Iran’s fall, the conflict expected to cross the region would dismantle all trade routes connecting Turkey with Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries. All previously mutually beneficial projects would be halted, and Turkey’s regional channels would be closed.
The collapse of Iranoften seen as the elimination of Turkey’s primary regional rival—would, in fact, bring greater costs, frustrations, risks, and deeper losses for Turkey. The war planned in Tel Aviv and Washington could reach Turkish homes, forcing Turkish mothers and wives to pay the highest prices for unprovoked acts by partners overseas.
Dr. Merzād Hājjim
