Shifts in landmasses occur in nature due to earthquakes, climate changes, and oceanic tides. Similarly, what is happening in the Middle East—particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean—in terms of forced political boundary redrawing and rearrangements, is a result of the failure of the centralized nation-state model rooted in racism. This model collapsed with the fall of dictatorships in Syria and Iraq, leaving behind massive structural destruction across the state, governance systems, and societies. Thus, the use of inherited terms and concepts from the Assad regime by the transitional authority in Damascus perpetuates a deep vertical division among the various ethnicities, sects, and denominations in Syria.

As is often the case with political transitions, they are accompanied by terrorism and tragedies. Hence, a chain of interconnected changes appears on both sides of the conflict—between the advocates of freedom and the pillars of tyranny.

Geopolitical geography has expanded in reverse proportion to international borders since the fall of the Soviet Union and the First Gulf War (1989–1991). On a regional level, both Iran and Turkey have expanded—whether through invasions, influence, or violations of international law—into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. As a result, the justifications for regional security and related agreements, including those involving Israel, have lost their presence both on the ground and in the air. Demarcation lines and buffer zones between conflicting sides have lost their significance. The recent long-distance clash between Iran and its “resistance” axis and Israel will have future implications and be studied within the context of modern warfare. Meanwhile, Israel has achieved victories on four fronts against four countries, while the opposing side’s media can no longer convince even its supporters with propagandist claims of imaginary victories meant to silence domestic dissent and accuse critics of treason and collusion.

Turkey had previously established military points through Russian agreements, exploiting a surplus of troops in the region. It succeeded in invading some areas of northern Syria and attempted to impose its culture, but ultimately failed. Iran, too, managed to build sectarian alliances with Alawites, Shiites, and Arab Houthis, but was similarly unsuccessful. Israel, by contrast, with its powerful deterrent capabilities, historical trauma (anti-Semitism), and national security justifications, managed within a short lifespan to build a state based on public freedoms—including for Palestinian Arabs (Sunnis, Druze, and Bedouins). Therefore, the current situation in the south and the desire of some local populations to join the greater Israeli state reflect the deepening ethnic conflict within a country where national standards have hit rock bottom due to the excessive violence of the Syrian civil war. The conflict has evolved into an existential one, fueled by the transitional authority’s reliance on external powers to manage internal equations, especially amid the resumption of Arab, regional (Turkish), and international relations aimed at stabilizing Syria under strict conditions.

A contraction of both geopolitical and human geography is expected, with Israel redrawing new borders—as is already happening in southern Syria and, differently, in Gaza. In Gaza, Israel seeks to divide the area into isolated zones, blocks, and sectors, leading to population displacement in line with the war’s progression. This would facilitate Israeli security control under its deterrence strategy.

The significant contraction of Iran’s Shiite axis reached a pre-final phase during the 12-day war in June 2025. As for Turkey, its military penetration into the Nineveh Plain, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and northern Syria has so far yielded no tangible results and resembles isolated islands. Therefore, its internal restructuring efforts aim to halt the erosion and looming collapse that would ultimately grant the people of Kurdistan their legitimate national rights on their historical homeland. This context includes remarks—"slips of the tongue"—by U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack regarding historical references to state formation based on the outcomes of the early 20th-century Sykes-Picot Agreement, which imposed artificial boundaries from outside the region. This also includes references to the Ottoman-era provincial rule in the Levant and Western attempts to reconcile contradictions—such as the transformation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham from a de facto authority in Idlib into a transitional authority in Damascus, with Western support for its control over all Syria (as a single centralized state with one flag and one army).

However, the retaliatory crimes that have targeted peaceful civilians on the coast—following the remnants of the regime's attacks on transitional authority centers—have generated terror and threatened civil peace. This occurred despite so-called “reconciliations” and “settlements,” which even included regime-affiliated figures. The events in Sweida were especially painful for coexistence, for two reasons: the transitional authority’s empowerment of tribal factions and vice versa, and the false reliance on U.S.-Israeli understandings. This brings Syria back to a pre-state era, dominated by vengeance, sectarian incitement ("panic-driven mobilization"), and ongoing threats to invade the East Euphrates region—without consideration of the consequences, which may drag the region into further internal violence and conflict.

These developments overlook the root causes that brought about this deadlock—namely, authoritarianism, the political impasse, and the lack of awareness regarding the major regional transformations. These are not just causing shifts in geography, but rather triggering population displacement in parallel with ethnic and sectarian alignments. For, by nature—like all creatures—humans will, in the end, seek refuge within their own groups when blind violence, criminality, and terrorism push them to abandon shared national sentiments under a law-of-the-jungle reality.

By: Qahraman Maran Agha