Job Inflation and Population Explosion Push Iraq Towards the Abyss

In a country suffering from water scarcity, climate changes threatening agriculture and life, corruption devouring budgets, and poor services almost a norm rather than an exception, decision-makers persist in ignoring two ticking bombs threatening the very existence of the state: job inflation and population explosion. The Iraqi public sector has transformed into a political refuge for distributing spoils through arbitrary appointments of millions of employees, many of whom have no real need or productive output. The result: more than 70% of the budget goes to salaries and operational expenses, while infrastructure crumbles like autumn leaves, investments decline, and spending on education and health erodes. This phenomenon is no longer just an administrative flaw but has become a grossly dysfunctional system suffocating any attempt at reform and closing the doors to development in both the public and private sectors.

At the same time, the population continues to grow by more than a million annually, without a national plan to regulate the pace or guide growth. Overcrowded schools, overwhelmed hospitals, mounting unemployment, and cities sprawling horizontally at the expense of agricultural land all occur while the per capita share of water decreases year after year.

The situation becomes even more dangerous when we add water scarcity and the impacts of climate change to the scene. Iraq today faces unprecedented droughts year after year, while neighboring countries’ water policies deprive it of its historical rights. With population expansion and increasing unproductive jobs, providing water and food becomes an existential challenge threatening national security.

The catastrophic picture is incomplete without corruption that eats away at every corner of the state, turning budgets into spoils and major projects into hollow slogans. In this environment, talk of reform or development becomes a luxury, while in reality, the state is managed with a mindset of denial, as if problems will solve themselves.

If these policies continue, the coming years will witness chronic deficits in budgets to cover salaries and services, rising unemployment and poverty, increased migration, and conflicts over scarce resources that could turn into open confrontations. The solution is urgent: restructuring the administrative apparatus, halting arbitrary appointments, launching a national family planning program linked to development and education, adopting sound water management that restores rights and improves internal use, prosecuting corruption without political or sectarian immunity, and opening productive investment opportunities to create jobs outside the public sector.

Today, Iraq doesn’t need more promises but bold decisions that challenge narrow interests and rebuild the state based on competence, not loyalty. The ticking bombs do not wait, and when the explosion occurs, no one will have the luxury of writing statements or forming committees.

Kifah Mahmud