Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s failure to secure the approval of the White House during his recent meeting with Donald Trump, he has been attempting to bypass the on-the-ground and political realities in Syria through evasive tactics. He did not achieve the same success he enjoyed in 2019 when Washington granted him the green light to launch an attack on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which he sees as a means to eliminate the SDF, then undermine the Autonomous Administration, and marginalize the Kurdish cause. This time, he resorted to a political ruse through what is called the “Syrian Transitional Government,” or the Joulani government, which revolves around Ankara’s orbit, turning it into a tool for Ankara to reshape the Syrian scene.

From there, Ankara has begun pulling its strings from behind the scenes, trying to persuade the American envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, to engage in covert diplomatic moves that serve its interests without appearing publicly. In his recent meeting at the White House, which laid the groundwork for today’s developments between the SDF and the transitional government under indirect American pressure, Erdoğan presented a package of economic and political concessions: from LNG deals to arms contracts exceeding thirty-eight billion dollars, along with a large order of Boeing aircraft and a potential deal for F-16 fighters. However, the most sensitive issue remains under discussion—the return of Turkey to the F-35 program—without any definitive American commitment. Meanwhile, Washington has increased American gas imports to Turkey, while Ankara continues to play its game through indirect channels and local proxies, securing its influence in a region where the United States is carefully calculating its complex security interests.

Within the Trump administration itself, a parallel conflict existed between two factions: one believing that America's future is built through economy and trade, and the other emphasizing traditional military and diplomatic strength as the foundation of U.S. hegemony. From this divergence, an understanding emerged between the two factions during a meeting between U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack and Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, with the leader of the SDF, Mazlum Abdi. The official stated that the goal was to “encourage dialogue” with interim Prime Minister Ahmad al-Shir’a, but leaked details from the meeting revealed the true U.S. stance: Admiral Cooper’s direct supervision and Barrack’s absence from the critical parts of the discussion confirm that Washington’s support for the SDF remains a strategic priority, and that the project to merge them into the so-called “National Army,” loyal to Turkey, is merely political illusion. For Washington, the SDF is not just a military partner but a central pillar in the regional security equation—from the fight against terrorism to safeguarding U.S., Israeli, and European security. Simultaneously, it is the guarantor of continuing the Autonomous Administration and an incubator for the Kurdish movement striving for constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people within a fair decentralized system. This is precisely what terrifies Ankara.

As for the “Syrian Transitional Government,” it is nothing more than a modified version of the old Baathist regime. The slogans have changed, but the core remains the same—complete submission to Ankara, just as the criminal Assad used to bow to Iran. The evidence is clear in its complete disregard for mentioning the Kurds in the draft constitution, its refusal to engage in serious dialogue with the Kurdish movement, and its removal of Nawroz from the list of national holidays, replicating Baathist exclusionary policies. This government perpetuates the idea that “diversity is dangerous, and the Kurds are a threat to national unity.”

This entrenched mentality in the Turkish political mindset, and in Joulani’s ideological worldview, has made Ankara terrified of the ongoing dialogues between the SDF leadership and Damascus’s government, under U.S. sponsorship. Turkey fears federation more than division itself because it knows that establishing a decentralized system in Syria would trigger a political earthquake capable of shaking the foundations of the “one nation-state” inside Turkey. That is why it quickly invited Damascus’s Foreign Minister Asaad Shibani to Ankara on the same day the dialogue took place, attempting to appear as a mediator while actually exercising overt guardianship over Syria, as if reviving an Ottoman province under diplomatic cover.

Today, Ankara understands that Washington will not abandon the SDF, and this steadfastness indicates that the Kurdish issue is heading toward a new solution aligned with U.S. and Israeli interests, paving the way for a federal reality modeled on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The American envoy’s statements oscillate between calming and appeasing Turkey; however, they do not alter the core of the equation, as Washington now sees the SDF as a strategic partner it cannot afford to relinquish. Therefore, what is demanded from the Kurdish movement and the Autonomous Administration is to firmly adhere to the national dimension based on federation and decentralization—not just as Kurdish demands, but as guarantees for Syria’s continued unity and fairness. The recent meeting.

Dr. Mahmoud Abbas