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There is No Solution to the Worsening Crisis in Iran Except for the Fall of the Regime!
The leaders of the Iranian regime, particularly Khamenei, are aware that there is no glimmer of hope for improving the situation, especially concerning the exacerbation of the economic crisis, which has reached a level that terrifies the regime because it paves the way for the best conditions and atmosphere for widespread popular protests. However, Khamenei's concern and fear intensify as he knows that this crisis will worsen further in the coming months, especially after the tightening of sanctions imposed on the regime.
Zeroing out Iranian oil exports, which is one of the goals sought by the Trump administration, has become a terrifying nightmare for the regime, with its shadows gradually becoming apparent on the horizon. Given that we know that the Iranian economy’s reliance on oil exports, particularly through smuggling, is substantial to the extent that cannot be ignored, it will negatively affect the current fragile stability, which the regime knows is not only prone to disturbance but also to explosion.
According to reports from inside Iran, the figures reveal a more grim reality. MP Habib Qasemi indicated that the value of the Iranian rial has lost 50% of its value over the past six months, resulting in a halving of the purchasing power of Iranians. To the extent that Jawad Nikbin, a member of the Iranian parliament, stated during a meeting on February 25, 2025: "How can people live? Our industries are already collapsing, and now factories are closing their doors for three days a week due to electricity, gas, and water outages. Is this your plan for economic growth?"
However, it is noteworthy that on February 25, 2025, when the Iranian parliament convened to discuss the dire economic situation, the Tehran Municipality Council approved an increase in subway and bus ticket prices ranging from 25% to 36.8% as part of a review of the municipal budget for 2025. This decision raised significant concerns, primarily affecting low and middle-income citizens who rely on public transportation for their daily commutes.
The chairman of the Urban Development and Transportation Committee in the Tehran Municipality stated that the real cost of each subway trip per passenger is estimated to be around 25,000 tomans, while passengers currently pay less than 20% of this amount. The financial gap has worsened due to accelerating inflation and rising maintenance costs, primarily because of the rising exchange rate and the sector's reliance on imported parts. Since the beginning of the current year, the dollar price has surged from 50,000 tomans to 92,000 tomans, a nearly 90% increase, resulting in significant operational cost increases and heightened pressure on the public budget.
Undoubtedly, with the unwavering determination of the US administration to implement its maximum pressure policy, the economic situation will worsen in the coming months, forcing the regime to impose further economic and living pressures on the already burdened and discontented Iranian people. The likelihood of a popular political earthquake in Iran is greater than ever, especially since the Iranian people have become fully convinced that there is no solution to the escalating crisis in Iran except through the fall of the regime.
**The Deadly Predicament of the Iranian Regime According to Khamenei**
It is worth noting that Khamenei, on March 8, during a lengthy speech attended by officials and associates of his regime, clearly highlighted the deadlock and absence of solutions to the intractable crises faced by the regime. In his speech, he stated:
"... We must be extremely cautious in our behavior, words, and performance, and resort more to remembrance, prayer, supplication, and entreaty... We cannot be subservient to the West... The goal that the Westerners seek is for the Islamic Republic to be incapable of managing the people's livelihood; hence, the livelihood issue is extremely important, and serious efforts must be made to reform it... Some foreign oppressive governments and figures insist on negotiations, while their goal is not to solve problems but to impose what they want. If the other side refuses, they create an uproar and accuse it of obstructing negotiations... They want to sow doubt in public opinion about the reasons for our refusal to negotiate despite their announcement of readiness for it, while their goal is not negotiation but domination and imposition..."
It is noteworthy that Khamenei’s statements came after the U.S. president said in an interview with Fox Business that aired on March 7, "The United States has reached the final stages with the Iranian regime, and we are right now at the last moments. This regime must not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. I prefer to reach a peaceful agreement instead of the other option, but the other option will resolve this problem as well."
Mir Mohammadian
